Triggers,templates and twitches in the tracking of emerging strategic issues

A longitudinal investigation of group tracking of potential new applications and markets created by an emerging technology (cellular telephones) is used to gain more understanding of the shifts of cognitive frames of reference in the environmental tracking of emerging strategic issues. The dynamics of frame of reference shifts is examined through the derivation and operationalization of the concepts of templates, triggers and twitches. The results posit that examining the frame of reference shifts can be more informative than examining the frames themselves. Implications for strategic management practice and research are addressed.     

The Distorting Impact of Capital Controls

Abstract. This paper uses panel data to show that capital controls have a significant impact on international interest rate differentials. Various types of controls can be distinguished within the data. The analysis shows that the aforementioned effects of capital controls on interest rates are especially strong in the case of capital import controls on portfolio capital; the implementation of these controls has been suggested in the wake of the Asian Crisis to prevent further crises. The results presented herein contradict the hypothesis that capital controls can achieve a restructuring of the maturity of capital inflows without a distortion in international capital allocation.     

Optimal investment decisions when time-horizon is uncertain

Many investors do not know with certainty when their portfolio will be liquidated. Should their portfolio selection be influenced by the uncertainty of exit time? In order to answer this question, we consider a suitable extension of the familiar optimal investment problem of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1971. Optimal consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model. Journal of Economic Theory 3, 373–413], where we allow the conditional distribution function of an agent’s time-horizon to be stochastic and correlated to returns on risky securities. In contrast to existing literature, which has focused on an independent time-horizon, we show that the portfolio decision is affected.     

The benefits and implementation of performance transparency: The why and how of letting your customers ‘see through’ your business

While some organizations swear by the benefits of transparency and are eager to learn and implement transparency practices, many managers are still reluctant or even afraid to use them. Our research reveals that only a few innovative companies have taken steps to leverage a potentially useful form of transparency: the provision of accessible and objective information to customers (e.g., sharing unbiased benchmark data, publishing unfiltered customer comments, or providing candid product reviews that may praise but also criticize the company’s products). Our study also shows that many companies remain wary and view greater calls for transparency as a challenge to be managed rather than an opportunity to be traded upon. This is partly due to limited research into the performance benefits of giving customers access to objective information, and lack of practical guidelines on how to actually implement it. This article addresses these shortcomings. First, we investigate whether performance transparency leads to customer outcomes that can be profitable for an organization and, second, we analyze the characteristics of successful transparency initiatives in a wide range of industries. Our research shows that customers exhibit more trust and are willing to pay a premium to deal with transparent businesses. Also, it uncovers seven effective strategies to leverage transparency. This article provides convincing empirical evidence for the benefits of performance transparency and the ways in which management may implement it successfully.     

2017 KLEIN LECTURE: THE SCIENCE OF USING SCIENCE: TOWARD AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE THREATS TO SCALABILITY

Policymakers are increasingly facing the challenge of scaling empirical insights. This study provides a theoretical lens into the science of how to use science. Through a simple model, we highlight three elements of the scale-up problem: (1) when does evidence become actionable; (2) properties of the population; and (3) properties of the situation. Until these three areas are fully understood, the threats to scalability will render any scaling exercise as particularly vulnerable. Accordingly, our work represents a call for more policy-based evidence, whereby the nature and extent of the various threats to scalability are explored in the original research program.     

Inference for the two-parameter bathtub-shaped distribution based on record data

Here we consider the record data from the two-parameter of bathtub-shaped distribution. First, we develop simplified forms for the single moments, variances and covariance of records. These distributional properties are quite useful in obtaining the best linear unbiased estimators of the location and scale parameters which can be included in the model. The estimation of the unknown shape parameters and prediction of the future unobserved records based on some observed ones are discussed. Frequentist and Bayesian analyses are adopted for conducting the estimation and prediction problems. The likelihood method, moment based method, bootstrap methods as well as the Bayesian sampling techniques are applied for the inference problems. The point predictors and credible intervals of future record values based on an informative set of records can be developed. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to compare the so developed methods and one real data set is analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

How should resource‐rich countries diversify? Estimating forward‐linkage effects of mining on productivity growth

Resource‐rich countries willing to diversify their economies are faced with dual policy options; to either develop resource‐based industries, or diversify their economies as a whole and invest into new activities that are not necessarily resource dependent. Not only does the economic theory fail to provide a consensual guidance on this issue but empirical evidence is also lacking. This paper empirically assesses which of these two patterns of diversification is associated with higher productivity growth outcomes for resource‐rich countries. Using panel data for 50 resource‐abundant countries over the period 1970–2010, I find that stronger downstream linkages to mining and extractives do not lead to productivity enhancements. Broadening and diversifying the production structure as a whole offers potential for productivity growth at higher levels of income.     

The Effect of the Arab Spring on Preferences for Redistribution in Egypt

This paper investigates the effect of the revolution that occurred in January 2011 in Egypt on the demand for redistribution in that country, which has drastically increased since that period. This shock has been an important event, enhancing freedom and the political structure. In a first step, taking into account the main determinants of preferences for redistribution in the literature, our results differ, showing a positive impact of religion and a negative impact of altruistic attitudes. In a second step, we rely on a diff-in-diff approach to estimate the effect of the revolution, using three similar countries as a control group. We find that Egyptians became much more favorable to redistribution after the Arab Spring. Moreover, the revolution effect is stronger for the poorest people and those who are interested in politics.